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[Chine] DF-41 : ICBM Mobile


Henri K.
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Le tir balistique mystérieux du 4 Décembre est finalement le 5ème essai du nouvel ICBM mobile chinois DF-41, selon le Pentagone.

China Flight Tests Multi-Warhead Missile

ew DF-41 long-range missile program advances

BY: Bill Gertz      
December 11, 2015 5:00 am

China conducted a flight test of a new multi-warhead ballistic missile capable of reaching targets throughout the United States, Pentagon officials said.

The test of the new DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM, took place Dec. 4.

The latest flight test demonstrated the use of two multiple independently-targetable reentry vehicles. The missile launch and dummy warheads were tracked by satellites to an impact range in western China.

It was the second flight test this year of the new missile and the fifth since 2012. U.S. intelligence assessments suggest that the missile will be capable of carrying between three and 10 warheads. The two most recent missile flight tests took place Aug. 6, also with two dummy warheads, and on Dec. 13, 2014.

Cmdr. Bill Urban, a Pentagon spokesman, declined to comment on the latest test. “We do not comment on specific PRC weapons tests, but we do monitor Chinese military modernization carefully,” Urban said.

The DF-41 is a road-mobile ICBM with a range of up to 7,456 miles. It is viewed by the Pentagon as China’s most significant new missile that has been in development since the early 2000s.

Mark Stokes, a former Pentagon official specializing in Chinese military affairs now at the Project 2049 Institute, said that the DF-41 missile program appears to be in the advanced stage of research and development.

“A reasonable speculation is that the system adapts a modified variant of the post-boost vehicle used on the DF-5B ICBM onto a new large diameter solid rocket motor,” said Stokes. “Assuming final design certification, the missile system could enter the Second Artillery’s operational inventory within the next five years.”

Rick Fisher, an expert on the Chinese military, said the test of two warheads indicates that Beijing may be seeking to mask the full warhead load of the new missile.

“It appears that China is pursuing a modest test schedule and the use of a low number of reentry vehicles may indicate a desire to conceal the full capability of the DF-41,” he said.

Fisher said testing the new missile with a small number of warheads allows Chinese missile engineers to expand the warheads’ trajectory. The test data can then be used in developing missiles with more warheads.

Based on the robust testing schedule for the DF-41, China is expected to deploy the missile in the next two years, Fisher said.

China obtained multiple-satellite launching technology from the United States during the 1990s through illicit space cooperation. The technology is believed to have formed the basis for the multiple warhead bus used on the DF-41.

The Pentagon’s latest annual report on China’s military states that current DF-31 and DF-31A missiles can reach “most locations within the continental United States.”

The DF-41, however, will provide full coverage for nuclear strikes on the United States, defense officials said.

China’s expansion of its current limited strategic missile forces into multiple warhead configurations marks a significant expansion of Beijing’s nuclear program.

China is currently engaged in a large-scale nuclear forces build-up from its current warhead stockpile, currently estimated to be around 300 warheads.

Outfitting its large force of strategic missiles with multiple warheads is likely to increase the number of warheads sharply.

China’s long-range strategic missile forces currently include DF-31, DF-31A, DF-4, and DF-5 ground-based missiles, and JL-1 and new JL-2 submarine-launched missiles.

A congressional commission on China in 2014 stated that “Despite the uncertainty surrounding China’s stockpiles of nuclear missiles and nuclear warheads, it is clear China’s nuclear forces over the next three to five years will expand considerably and become more lethal and survivable with the fielding of additional road-mobile nuclear missiles; as many as five JIN [missile submarines], each of which can carry 12 JL–2 submarine-launched ballistic missiles; and intercontinental ballistic missiles armed with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs).”

In a related development, a spokeswoman for Adm. Cecil Haney, commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, confirmed this week that China has begun operational patrols with nuclear missile submarines.

Navy Capt. Pamela S. Kunze, the Stratcom spokeswoman, elaborated on comments by Adm. Cecil Haney, the Strategic Command commander, regarding the anticipated submarine patrols in a statement to the Washington Times.

“Given China’s known capabilities and their efforts to develop a sea-based deterrent, in absence of indicators to the contrary, it is prudent to assume that patrols are occurring,” she said.

Haney said in October that while the Chinese have not announced the missile submarine patrols, some of the four Jin-class submarines have been seen this year.

“So I have to look at it as operational capability today,” Haney told reporters Oct. 22.

China has not announced it is conducting nuclear-missile submarine patrols and U.S. intelligence agencies remain uncertain as to whether China has deployed nuclear-tipped JL-2 missiles on the Jin-class submarines.

D'après le NOTAM A3553/15, le point du départ se situe non loin du centre de lancement TSLC, ce qui exclut un lancement sur pas de tir mais plutôt depuis un TEL mobile. La distance très courte entre le point du départ jusqu'à la fin de la zone d'interdiction de vol, environ 990 km, indique une trajectoire haute en cloche. Ceci semble suggérer que l'essai n'est pas pour tester le lanceur lui-même mais plutôt le PBV et les MiRV.

A3553/15 NOTAMN

Q) ZLHW/QRTCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/4016N10234E108
A) ZLHW B) 1512040322 C) 1512040413 
E) A TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY: 
N404100E1015512-N401152E1045504-N394016E1044540-N395330E1031232-N40
2046E1001301-N405240E1002036 BACK TO START. VERTICAL LIMITS:GND-UNL.
F) GND G) UNL

dzC8CyL.jpg

Il s'agit du 5ème essai de cet ICBM MiRV mobile de portée supérieure à 12 000 km. Les 4 premiers essais ont eu lieu le 24 Juillet 2012, le 13 Décembre 2013, le 13 décembre 2014 et le 5 Août 2015.

Henri K.

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Après le tir d'essai d'un DF-41 avec 2 têtes MiRV le 4 Décembre, le lendemain la Chine a procédé à un test d'éjection du même type de missile ICBM depuis un lanceur ferroviaire, selon les services de renseignement américains.

China Tests New ICBM from Railroad Car

Rail-mobile launcher used in DF-41 ejection test

BY: Bill Gertz      
December 21, 2015 5:00 am

U.S. intelligence agencies recently monitored a Chinese test of a new rail car-based long-range missile capable of hitting targets throughout the United States.

The canister ejection test of a DF-41 missile from a rail-mobile launcher was detected on Dec. 5 in western China, said defense officials familiar with reports of the test.

Few details were available on the DF-41 launcher ejection test.

However, Chinese rail-based missile development has been carried out in the past at the Wuzhai missile test center, also known as the Taiyuan satellite launch center since 1982, according to declassified CIA documents. The launch site is located in China’s central Shanxi Province.

The test this month marks a significant milestone for Chinese strategic weapons developers and demonstrates that Beijing is moving ahead with building and deploying the DF-41 on difficult-to-locate rail cars, in addition to previously-known road-mobile launchers, the officials said.

Pentagon spokesman Cmdr. Bill Urban declined to comment. “We do not comment on PRC weapons tests, but we do monitor Chinese military modernization carefully,” he said.

Previous disclosures from China on the DF-41, including Internet photographs, all showed the heavy missile deployed on a wheeled transporter erector launcher that is moved on roads.

The DF-41, with a range of more than 7,500 miles, is China’s most potent ICBM and was flight tested a day before the rail car ejection test with two multiple-independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), officials said.

Military analysts say the mobile basing of missiles is designed to complicate preemptive attacks on nuclear forces, such as those envisioned under the Pentagon’s Prompt Global Strike program, which will use precision-guided conventional weapons capable of striking targets at any location on earth within minutes of their discovery.

U.S. intelligence agencies estimate the DF-41 when deployed will carry up to 10 MIRVs—vastly increasing Beijing’s current warhead stockpile, which is based on single-warhead missiles, and currently estimated to include around 300 warheads.

Details of the Chinese rail-based missile system were first reported by the Washington Free Beacon in 2013.

China is believed to have obtained rail-mobile missile technology from Ukraine, which during the Soviet period built the SS-24 rail-based ICBM, according to a report by Georgetown University’s Asian Arms Control Project.

China state television in 2006 released the first details of the train basing for missiles in video footage showing missile launch cars, command cars, and other missile system railcars—all disguised as passenger train cars.

The Georgetown report said the Chinese rail-mobile ICBM system is modeled on the Ukrainian-designed SS-24, and is known as a “land nuclear submarine”—an indication the rail launcher uses an ejection tube to boost the missile from the train car shortly before ignition of its engine.

China also is developing an extensive rail and tunnel system devoted to the missile train in central China, according to the report.

Phillip A. Karber, a defense expert who heads the Potomac Foundation, said his organization recently identified a DF-41 at a special launch site at Taiyuan. The missile was revealed in commercial satellite photos.

“If that missile train hosts the DF-41 ICBM it means it will also have a MIRV potential,” Karber said. “The combination of high-speed mobility, launch cars disguised as civilian passenger trains, tunnel protection and secure reloading of missiles, coupled with multiple warheads, makes the system extremely hard to regulate or verify the number of systems.”

Karber, who also is affiliated with the Georgetown arms control project, said the project first identified the rail-based ICBM system four years ago. However, the arms control community dismissed reports about the basing mode, he said.

“Since then there have been reports that China’s 2nd Artillery Corps, the force that operates the missiles, had built 2,000 kilometers [1,243 miles] of heavy gauge rail for this system,” Karber said.

The dedicated missile rail and tunnel system will significantly expand China’s ability to target ICBMs in the United States by avoiding missile overflight of Alaska, where U.S. anti-missile interceptors are based.

“We have also seen imagery of huge tunnel complexes capable of hosting three missile trains side by side,” Karber said.

China’s first public disclosure of the DF-41 occurred in August 2014 when details about the missile program were published on a regional Chinese government web site.

After the disclosure, Chinese military spokesman Geng Yansheng told state media that “research and development [of missiles] is normal for the military without any specific enemy in mind.”

“Because of the missile’s mobility, it is extremely difficult to be tracked by satellite,” Geng said.

China’s military doctrine in a 2013 study stated that U.S. prompt global strike weapons posed a threat to China’s nuclear forces.

A congressional China commission stated in its annual report published earlier this year that China is deploying multiple-warhead missiles to increase China’s “ability to penetrate adversary missile defenses and enhancing the credibility of its nuclear forces as a deterrent.”

The Pentagon is also studying a road- and rail-mobile ICBM system for future nuclear forces, according to Air Force contracting documents.

Rick Fisher, an expert on Chinese military programs, said China has been interested in rail basing for missiles for some time.

“The Soviet SS-24 used a rail car launcher, could carry up to 10 warheads and had a range of 10,000 kilometers,” Fisher said. “This is close to the capabilities of the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation DF-41 ICBM.”

China also has decades of experience in perfecting rail cars for transport of easily damaged large missiles and payloads.

“Like the versions developed for the Soviets, the Chinese system likely uses a cold-launch tube fitted to a covered rail car,” Fisher said.

The recent rail ejection test likely is for “verifying the ability of the tube to eject the heavy DF-41 ICBM,” he added.

After ejection from the tube, the DF-41 engine ignites microseconds after the missile clears the end of the canister.

Cold launch tubes are preferred for missile systems because the materials cost less and require less strength than missiles launched “hot” from within a tube.

“This vastly increases the challenge of tracking China’s ICBM force, as China today has 74,565 miles of rail lines, including 9,942 miles of high speed rail,” Fisher said, adding that by 2050 China could have up to 170,000 miles of rail lines.

High-speed rail lines would allow the DF-41 to reach deployment location rapidly and would complicate efforts to monitor, track, and counter the missiles.

Road-mobile and rail-mobile DF-41s will double China’s warheads in China’s arsenal and give China the capability of targeting the United States with nuclear strikes from most locations in China, Fisher said.

The Chinese nuclear buildup should prompt the United States to re-evaluate its arms control constraints on its nuclear forces, Fisher said.

“Given the growing degree of military technical cooperation and military-political coordination between Beijing and Moscow, we have to consider that eventually Russia and China could combine their nuclear weapons in a ‘tilt’ to coerce the United States, lets say in a military crisis over the future of democratic Taiwan,” he said.

Meanwhile, Russia also disclosed recently that it is developing a new rail basing system for ICBMs.

Col. Gen. Sergei Karakayev, commander of the Strategic Rocket Forces, Russian’s nuclear missile and bomber forces, said a report on the rail basing would be presented to the Kremlin in 2017.

“Now the initial design is ready and we are preparing working design documentation for aggregates and systems within the weapon,” Karakayev said, according to state-run Interfax on Dec. 17.

The new system will be based on the SS-24 that was dismantled after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Russia is seeking rail basing for missiles in response to the U.S. Prompt Global Strike system, according to Russian press reports.

Henri K.

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Un nouveau tir d'essai du missile intercontinental mobile DF-41

2018-06-10-Un-nouvel-tir-dessai-du-missi

Citation

Les sources américaines confirment que la force des fusées chinois a procédé à un nouvel tir du missile intercontinental mobile DF-41 fin Mai.

http://www.eastpendulum.com/un-nouvel-tir-dessai-du-missile-intercontinental-mobile-df-41

Henri K.

Modifié par Henri K.
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