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Résilience à une nouvelle pandémie

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il y a une heure, g4lly a dit :

C'est pour ça que les soignants furent confinés au travail en Chine ...

Pour être précis, ils ne sont pas confinés au lieu de travail mais dans la ville où ils travaillent.

Après leur résidences temporaires sont aussi confinés, transport point à point, donc c'est comme si...

Henri K.

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Il y a 4 heures, g4lly a dit :

C'est tout le probleme de la levée du confinement ... sans traitement ou dépistage précoce tout azimut ... ça aboutit naturellement à de nouvelles contaminations comme au début de la première vague.

La seule issue hors traitement c'est un dépistage quasi-complet de la population. Pour isoler les "contaminateurs" avant qu'il contaminent ...

Mais dans le cas covid 19 ... l'absence de signe avant coureur sur des individus déjà contaminant ne permettent pas de se contenter d'un dépistage massif pour isoler les foyers.

Ces phrases devraient etre marquées en gras, en haut de la page, en rappel d'une idée de base (comme le post d'Akhiléus qui nous parle du nombre de masques necessaires, ou le post qui nous rappelle où sont fabriqués les produits pour les tests, dans des pays infestés qui se servent en premier)

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Interview d'Anthony Fauci, directeur de National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases et celui qui accompagne Trump  et cie dans les conférences de presse tous les jours maintenant.

‘I’m going to keep pushing.’ Anthony Fauci tries to make the White House listen to facts of the pandemic

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/i-m-going-keep-pushing-anthony-fauci-tries-make-white-house-listen-facts-pandemic

Citation

By Jon CohenMar. 22, 2020 , 7:35 PM

Anthony Fauci, who to many watching the now-regular White House press briefings on the pandemic has become the scientific voice of reason about how to respond to the new coronavirus, runs from place to place in normal times and works long hours. Now, the director of National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases has even less time to sleep and travels at warp speed, typically racing daily from his office north of Washington, D.C., to his home in the capital, and then to the White House to gather with the Coronavirus Task Force in the Situation Room. He then usually flanks President Donald Trump addressing the media—and when he isn't there, concerned tweets begin immediately. Shortly before he planned to head to the White House for a task force meeting today, he phoned ScienceInsider for a speedy chat. This interview has been edited for brevity and clarity.

Q: The first question everyone has is how are you?

A: Well, I'm sort of exhausted. But other than that, I'm good. I mean, I'm not, to my knowledge, coronavirus infected. To my knowledge, I haven't been fired. [Laughs.]

Q: How are you managing to not get fired?

A: Well, that's pretty interesting because to his [Trump’s] credit, even though we disagree on some things, he listens. He goes his own way. He has his own style. But on substantive issues, he does listen to what I say.

Q: You’ve been in press conferences where things are happening that you disagree with, is that fair to say?

A: Well, I don't disagree in the substance. It is expressed in a way that I would not express it, because it could lead to some misunderstanding about what the facts are about a given subject.

Q: You stood nearby while President Trump was in the Rose Garden shaking hands with people. You're a doctor. You must have had a reaction like, ‘Sir, please don't do that.’

A: Yes, I say that to the task force. I say that to the staff. We should not be doing that. Not only that—we should be physically separating a bit more on those press conferences. To his credit, the vice president [Mike Pence] is really pushing for physical separation of the task force [during meetings]. He keeps people out of the room—as soon as the room gets like more than 10 people or so, it’s, ‘Out, everybody else out, go to a different room.’ So with regard to the task force, the vice president is really a bear in making sure that we don't crowd 30 people into the Situation Room, which is always crowded. So, he's definitely adhering to that. The situation on stage [for the press briefings] is a bit more problematic. I keep saying, ‘Is there any way we can get a virtual press conference?’ Thus far, no. But when you're dealing with the White House, sometimes you have to say things one, two, three, four times, and then it happens. So, I'm going to keep pushing.

Q: You're standing there saying nobody should gather with more than 10 people and there are almost 10 people with you on the stage. And there are certainly more than 10 journalists there asking questions.

A: I know that. I’m trying my best. I cannot do the impossible.

Q: What about the travel restrictions? Trump keeps saying that the travel ban for China, which began 2 February, had a big impact [on slowing the spread of the virus to the United States] and that he wishes China would have told us 3 to 4 months earlier and that they were “very secretive.” [China did not immediately reveal the discovery of a new coronavirus in late December 2019, but by 10 January, Chinese researchers made the sequence of the virus public.]  It just doesn't comport with facts.

A: I know, but what do you want me to do? I mean, seriously Jon, let’s get real, what do you want me to do?

Q: Most everyone thinks that you’re doing a remarkable job, but you're standing there as the representative of truth and facts, but things are being said that aren't true and aren't factual.

A: The way it happened is that after he made that statement [suggesting China could have revealed the discovery of a new coronavirus 3 to 4 months earlier], I told the appropriate people, it doesn't comport, because 2 or 3 months earlier would have been September. The next time they sit down with him and talk about what he’s going to say, they will say, ‘By the way, Mr. President, be careful about this and don't say that.’ But I can't jump in front of the microphone and push him down. OK, he said it. Let's try and get it corrected for the next time.

Q: You have not said China virus. [Trump frequently calls the cause of the spreading illness known as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) a “China virus” or a “Chinese virus.”]

A: Ever.

Q: And you never will, will you?

A: No.

Q: I'm curious about some things that aren't happening on a national scale. One is, why are shelter in place orders happening state by state? Why are we doing this sequentially? Is that a mistake?

A: No, I don't think we could say it's a mistake or not a mistake. There is a discussion and a delicate balance about what’s the overall impact of shutting everything down completely for an indefinite period of time. So, there's a compromise. If you knock down the economy completely and disrupt infrastructure, you may be causing health issues, unintended consequences, for people who need to be able to get to places and can't. You do the best you can. I've emphasized very emphatically at every press conference, that everybody in the country, at a minimum, should be following the fundamental guidelines. Elderly, stay out of society in self isolation. Don't go to work if you don't have to. Yada, yada, yada. No bars, no restaurants, no nothing. Only essential services. When you get a place like New York or Washington or California, you have got to ratchet it up. But it is felt—and it isn't me only speaking, it’s a bunch of people who make the decisions—that if you lock down everything now, you're going to crash the whole society. So, you do what you can do, as best as you can. Do as much physical separation as you can and ratchet it up at the places you know are at highest risk.

Q: But I heard a guy say, if you think you're doing too much, you're probably doing the right amount.

A: That’s me.

Q: I know it's you. The “15 Days to Slow the Spread” campaign doesn't mention religious gatherings. I know Pence mentioned them yesterday. But why aren’t they on the 15 days recommendations? All these other places are mentioned.

A: It was implied in no crowds of more than 10 people. But you’re right, crowds in church are important and every time I get a chance to say it, I mention it. I can't really criticize them strongly for that at all. When you say less than 10, it makes common sense that it involves the church. I say it publicly and even the vice president has said it publicly.

Q: What happens before each press conference? What do you do as a group?

A: We're in the task force. We sit down for an hour and a half, go over all the issues on the agenda. And then we proceed from there to an anteroom right in front of the Oval Office to talk about what are going to be the messages, what are the kind of things we're going to want to emphasize? Then we go in to see the president, we present [our consensus] to him and somebody writes a speech. Then he gets up and ad libs on his speech. And then we're up there to try and answer questions.

Q: At Friday’s press conference, you put your hands over your face when Trump referred to the “deep State Department,” [a popular conspiracy theory]. It’s even become an internet meme. Have you been criticized for what you did?

A: No comment.

Q: We've seen creative ideas about how to respond in other countries that we aren’t adopting. China uses thermometers at supermarkets before letting people in. Should we be considering that?

A: Yes, of course. I think the logistics of that have to be worked out. That was discussed. All these things are discussed. Not all of them are implemented. This is something that should be considered. I will bring it up at the next task force meeting and see whether there’s some sort of a logistical, bureaucratic reason why it can't be done. The rationale for doing it is at least worth serious consideration.

Q: Big Picture: We've had all this pandemic preparedness. Why did this fail? What went wrong?

A: I think we'll have to wait until it is over and we look back before we can answer that. It's almost like the fog of war. After the war is over, you then look back and say, ‘Wow, this plan, as great as it was, didn't quite work once they started throwing hand grenades at us.’ It really is similar to that. Obviously, testing [for the new coronavirus] is one clear issue that needs to be relooked at. Why were we not able to mobilize on a broader scale? But I don't think we can do that right now. I think it's premature. We really need to look forward.

Q: Right now, why do we have a travel ban on visitors from China when there are few cases in China other than imported cases? What's the logic?

A: I'm sorry. I was just looking at two text messages, one from a governor and one from the White House. I gotta get off.

Henri K.

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JE VOUS INVITE VRAIMENT A REGARDER CETTE VIDÉO

Plein de bon sens et de recul ... intelligent, en ce moment çà fait du bien

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Posted (edited)

https://www.ouest-france.fr/sante/virus/coronavirus/coronavirus-la-france-va-bientot-pouvoir-produire-100-000-litres-de-gel-hydroalcoolique-par-jour-6789134

 

il y a 57 minutes, Henri K. a dit :

 

"Un nouveau lot de matériels médicaux, comprenant 100000 masques et 50000 kits de dépistage" Qui paye le matériel ?

Edited by LBP

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il y a 10 minutes, LBP a dit :

"Un nouveau lot de matériels médicaux, comprenant 100000 masques et 50000 kits de dépistage" Qui paye le matériel ?

Rien n'est gratuit sur cette bonne Terre...

Henri K.

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Citation
Citation

 

À Vo’Euganeo (Vénétie), tous les habitants confinés (3 300) ont été testés il y a un mois. Résultat, sur 89 cas positifs, ils ne sont plus qu’une poignée, rapporte La Voix du Nord. De quoi laisser rêveur dans ce pays où l’on compte désormais plus de 5400 décès, liés au coronavirus 

Ils y sont tous passés. Les uns après les autres, les 3 300 habitants de Vo’Euganeo, un bourg situé à 30 kilomètres de Padoue, en Vénétie, au nord-est de l’Italie, ont tous été soumis à des tests de dépistage du Covid-19, rapporte La Voix du Nord. C’était il y a un mois, après le décès de la première victime italienne, à Padoue justement. Adriano Trevisan, 78 ans, venait de Vo’.

...

Aujourd’hui, le village toujours placé en confinement comme le reste du pays n’est pas sorti d’affaire. Et la population sera soumise à un deuxième test. Mais depuis six jours, plus un seul cas de contagion n’y a été enregistré, précise Libération en date du 22 mars. Mieux, les délais de guérison ont été rapides : dix jours en moyenne, selon les déclarations du professeur Sergio Romagnani, virologue à la faculté de Florence.

 

https://www.lesoir.be/289399/article/2020-03-23/coronavirus-en-italie-un-village-echappe-la-pandemie-apres-un-depistage-massif

 

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repost du fil covid2019

balise #Covid2019 #Masque #Industrie

Des nouvelles sur la réponse de l'industrie, sur la montée de la production (de guerre) pour faire face à l'épidémie de coronavirus:
(en plus des dons de particulier, et des commandes / dons passés à la Chine)
(J'évite les polémiques sur la responsabilité des stocks de masque, ça peut attendre l'heure des règlements de compte, après avoir sauvé les vies)

sources:

(article du 24 mars) https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2020/03/24/coronavirus-les-entreprises-face-a-la-complexite-de-produire-des-masques-de-protection_6034208_3234.html

(article du 19 mars) https://www.liberation.fr/france/2020/03/19/pme-multinationales-mobilisation-generale-pour-produire-gel-et-masques_1782379

En résumé:

  • Pour les gels désinfectants hydroalcooliques, ça a l'air en bonne voie.
    "L’Oréal, L’Occitane, Chargeurs et LVMH ont converti des usines pour en produire des centaines de tonnes"
    Et le groupe Ricard a fait don de 70 000 litres d'alcool pur
     
  • Pour les masques, c'est plus compliqué.
    Les besoins sont immenses et divergent énormément suivant le point de vue ...
    (article du 22 mars) besoins en masque jetables https://www.cnews.fr/france/2020-03-22/coronavirus-de-combien-de-masques-t-besoin-938906
    • Le gouvernement estimait le besoin à 24M de masques par semaine (juste pour les hopitaux)
    • Des médecins réclament 105M de masques FFP2 par semaine
    • le JDD estime le besoin à 400M de masque par semaine en incluant les besoins des infirmiers, des pharmaciens, EHPAD, policiers, pompiers, etc.
      (Du coup, l'ancien stock stratégique de 700M de masque ne semble plus si "gaspillant" que ça ...).  
       
  • Les 4 fabriquants nationaux de masque tournent 24h/24, et embauchent à tour de bras (même des volontaires en chômage technique  prêtés par les autres entreprises).
    Production actuelle : 7M masque par semaine (de mémoire), et ça continue de monter.
     
  • La filière textile et luxe a répondu présent, avec 90 fabriquants coordonnés par Guillaume Gibault, PDG du Slip Français (on ne rigole pas) , pour produire des masques antiprojection de salive (chirurgicaux) et des masques alternatifs au modèle FFP2 .
    Problème : il faut faire certifier les modèles de masque, pour qu'ils soient bien protecteurs : la DGA est débordée.

D'où les appels à donation des particuliers, et entreprises privées, même de masque de bricolage.
Chaque donation peut aider...

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Sorry, conspiracy theorists. Study concludes COVID-19 'is not a laboratory construct'

https://abcnews.go.com/US/conspiracy-theorists-study-concludes-covid-19-laboratory-construct/story?id=69827832

Citation

By Kate Holland | 27 March 2020, 17:00

Conspiracy theories claiming COVID-19 was engineered in a lab as part of a biological attack on the United States have been gaining traction online in recent weeks, but a new study on the origins of the virus has concluded that the pandemic-causing strain developed naturally.

An analysis of the evidence, according to the findings first published in the scientific journal Nature Medicine, shows that the novel coronavirus "is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus," with the researchers concluding "we do not believe that any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible."

"There’s a lot of speculation and conspiracy theories that went to a pretty high level," Dr. Robert Garry, a professor at the Tulane University School of Medicine and one of the authors of the study, told ABC News, "so we felt it was important to get a team together to examine evidence of this new coronavirus to determine what we could about the origin."

Dr. Francis Collins, the director of the National Institutes of Health, supported the study’s findings, writing on his blog, "This study leaves little room to refute a natural origin for COVID-19."

Researchers concluded that the novel coronavirus is not a human creation because it does not share any "previously used virus backbone." It likely arose, the study said, from a recombination of a virus found in bats and another virus, possibly originating from pangolins, otherwise known as scaly anteaters.

COVID-19 is 96% identical to a coronavirus found in bats, researchers said, but with a certain variation that could explain what has made it so infectious.

"We know from the study of other coronaviruses that they’re able to acquire this [variation] and they can then become more pathogenic," Garry told ABC News. "This is a good explanation as to why this virus is so transmittable and has caused this pandemic."

The mutation in surface proteins, according to Garry, could have triggered the outbreak of the pandemic, but it’s also possible that a less severe version of the illness was circulating through the population for years, perhaps even decades, before escalating to this point.

"We don’t know if those mutations were picked up more recently or a long time ago," Garry told ABC News. "It’s impossible to say if it actually was a mutation that triggered the pandemic, but either way, it would have been a naturally occurring process."

And while many believe the virus originated at a fish market in Wuhan, China, Garry said that is also a misconception.

"Our analyses, and others too, point to an earlier origin than that," Garry said. "There were definitely cases there, but that wasn’t the origin of the virus."

L'étude de l'Université Tulane aux Etats Unis :

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

Henri K.

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#covid2019 #Epidémie #Statistiques

Je reposte ici, vu que ce sont des infos stratégiques sur le statut de l'épidémie (et pour éviter qu'elles soient noyées dans le déluge de mauvaises nouvelles)

 

il y a 39 minutes, albeitar1 a dit :

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Europe-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf

...voici l´estimation du taux de population infectée dans 11 pays européens, selon un groupe des scientifiques :

30 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team

DOI: Page 6 of 35

Table 1: Posterior model estimates of percentage of total population infected as of 28th March 2020. Country

% of total population infected (mean [95% credible interval])

Austria 1.1% [0.36%-3.1%]

Belgium 3.7% [1.3%-9.7%]

Denmark 1.1% [0.40%-3.1%]

France 3.0% [1.1%-7.4%]

Germany 0.72% [0.28%-1.8%]

Italy 9.8% [3.2%-26%]

Norway 0.41% [0.09%-1.2%]

Spain 15% [3.7%-41%]

Sweden 3.1% [0.85%-8.4%]

Switzerland 3.2% [1.3%-7.6%]

United Kingdom 2.7% [1.2%-5.4%]

Révélation

selon cette étude épidémiologique, autor 2 millions deFrançais auraient été infectés, 6 m d´ italiens ,

7 m d´espagnols, 500.000 allemans, etc.

Si l´on prens en compte les chifres donnés par les autorités nationaux les taux de mortalité du Covid19 serions bien á la bas:

0,1 % pour les espagnols, 1% pour les allemans, etc...

 

Merci beaucoup pour ce papier scientifique (sans doute la même équipe de l'Imperial College, auteur de la simulation de référence sur l'évolution de l'épidémie)

Le taux de contaminé italien ~10% et espagnol ~15% fait frémir
(et l'écart type aussi ...)

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Posted (edited)

repost ici car non spécifique à la pandémie

#résilience #infrastructures vitales

Un petit article sur les précautions / organisations dans les infrastructures vitales

ici la centrales nucléaire de Graveline (Ignorer le titre putaclic )

https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2020/03/31/la-centrale-nucleaire-de-gravelines-fonctionne-avec-seulement-un-quart-de-ses-effectifs_6035025_3234.html

il y a peu de contaminés, mais par précaution, seuls 25% du personnel de la centrale est présente sur site (par roulement).
Le reste est en télétravail, ou de réserve.
Priorité sur la continuité de la production, et la maintenance : toutes les opérations non vitales ont été reportées.
Le plan d'urgence interne prévoit assez de marge pour continuer à faire tourner la centrale pendant 3 mois, avec 25% de personnel incapacité, ou pendant 3 semaines avec 40% d'incapacité).

 

Edited by rogue0

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il y a 24 minutes, rogue0 a dit :

ici la centrales nucléaire de Graveline (Ignorer le titre putaclic )

Pour une boîte qui travaille H24, c'est difficile d'avoir plus de 25% des effectifs de présent... même les usines qui travaillent en 2×8, en comptant les absences "normales" et du télétravail, il doit être rare d'avoir plus de 40% des effectifs de présent.

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Les hôpitaux de Paris vont produire en 3D les équipements qui leur manquent

Les hôpitaux de Paris se lancent dans la production en 3D d'équipements qui leur font cruellement défaut. Le projet «3D COVID», initié par un chirurgien de l'hôpital Necker-Enfants malades, va permettre, dès mercredi soir, de «produire en grande quantité des dispositifs médicaux pour faire face aux demandes de matériel inédites en cette période d'épidémie» due au coronavirus, explique l'Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP).

Visières de protection, masques, pièces pour respirateurs, matériel d'intubation...vont être fabriqués par une soixantaine d'imprimantes 3D, installées dans une mini-usine établie dans le parc de l'Abbaye de Port-Royal, adossé à l'hôpital Cochin.  

 

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il y a 10 minutes, P4 a dit :

Visières de protection, masques, pièces pour respirateurs, matériel d'intubation...vont être fabriqués par une soixantaine d'imprimantes 3D, installées dans une mini-usine établie dans le parc de l'Abbaye de Port-Royal, adossé à l'hôpital Cochin.  

c'est génial !!!

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Le 31/03/2020 à 08:44, rogue0 a dit :

#covid2019 #Epidémie #Statistiques

Je reposte ici, vu que ce sont des infos stratégiques sur le statut de l'épidémie (et pour éviter qu'elles soient noyées dans le déluge de mauvaises nouvelles)

 

Merci beaucoup pour ce papier scientifique (sans doute la même équipe de l'Imperial College, auteur de la simulation de référence sur l'évolution de l'épidémie)

Le taux de contaminé italien ~10% et espagnol ~15% fait frémir
(et l'écart type aussi ...)

Je le trouve pas ce post. Par contre, les chiffres donné ne sont pas du tout ceux qui circulent. L'un des responsables italiens avait par exemple déclaré qu'il estime le nombre de cas en Italie autour de 600 000 il y a quelques jours. Ce qui était cohérent avec le taux de mortalité connu de ce virus et des nombres de cas graves déclaré. 

Là, on nous donne une estimation large, très très large même avec un facteur de presque 10 mais tout de même entre le bas de l'estimation et le haut. Après réflexion, leur estimation le semble cohérent, bien que effrayant. Nous avons eu le cas du diamond princess qui a été un vrai catastrophe sanitaire mais nous a quand même permis d'avoir une idée sur le taux de mortalité avec 10 décès pour 700 cas. Du coup, un peu au dessus des 1% de taux de mortalité lorsque les conditions de prises en charge sont bonne. 

La, avec 10% de la population italienne atteint, on aurait eu sûrement entre 20 000 et 60 000 décès en tenant compte que diamond princess avait peut être une répartition de la clientèle plus âgé que la moyenne de la population en Italie. 

Entre les décès qui ne sont pas comptabilisés et ceux qui ne sont pas encore décédé, on va surement doublé le nombre de victimes actuel. 

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