Guerre civile en Syrie

[debonneguerre]

On voit une utilisation massive de TOW dans le coin.

Qu'on se demande si ils tirent pas en batterie, le tir qui vise le deuxième char qui fuit l'explosion de son binôme intervient quasiment simultanément après le premier shot, et en effet il le manque.

[Akhilleus]

On voit une utilisation massive de TOW dans le coin.

Qu'on se demande si ils tirent pas en batterie, le tir qui vise le deuxième char qui fuit l'explosion de son binôme intervient quasiment simultanément après le premier shot, et en effet il le manque.

C'est moins facile de cibler en véhicule en échappement derrière des oliviers qu'un vehicule à l'arrêt .....

[zx]

Syrie: les Etats-Unis ont commencé à entraîner des rebelles "modérés"

 

http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2015/05/07/97001-20150507FILWWW00430-syrie-les-etats-unis-ont-commence-a-entrainer-des-rebelles-moderes.php

Modifié le 7 mai 2015 par zx

[Libanais_75]

"Ont commencé à entraîner des rebelles"... ils sont au courant que ça fait plusieurs années que les américains agissent de la sorte ?

Ils n'évoquent même pas le groupe Hazm, dernière tentative du genre, qui s'est soldée par une défaite cuisante des """""modérés"""" qui ont perdus leurs armes au profit d'al-Nosra et compagnie.

[Shorr kan]

Tu parles un petit changement de nom, une aglomération avec 2/3 faction "modéré" et c'est dans la poche. Cela fait déjà plus d'1 an que ça a commencé, j'ai même vu des journalistes parler "d'Alqaida modéré".

 

 

Il y a une année environ que les 1ere informations a ce sujets ont commencés a apparaître (je les avais posté ici même d'ailleurs).

 

Le planning est d'ailleurs annoncé, on écarte une (petite) partie des cadres, certains chefs trop grillés médiatiquement parlant et on change le nom pour repartir sur de "nouvelles" bases. 

 

Marrant que l'AS ait reprit cette idée d'ailleurs, c'était les service spéciaux qatari qui sont a l'origine du projet. 

 

T'iras expliqué ca a Fabius pr qui Al Nosra (AQ en Syrie donc) "fait du très bon travail sur le terrain" ^^

 

 

Ajoutons, que Daech joue très bien le rôle de nemesis. Vu leur acharnement à être des caricatures de méchants de BD, n'importe quelle organisation à tôt fait de passer pour une association de philanthrope et d'humaniste. À côté même Al Qaida parait sympathique. Ça aidera beaucoup dans le storytelling de "réhabilitation" qui se prépare...

 

 

Tirs de TOW très impressionnants le 4 mai par ici :  http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35.840812&lon=36.646185&z=14&m=b

 

 

C'est quand même dingue de les voir mettre leurs chars autant à découvert alors qu'ils savent que les rebelles ont les hauteurs et qu'ils ont des missiles antichar en masse dans le secteur.

 

...

 

Ce qui me fait poser deux questions :

 

1- Pourquoi l'artillerie loyaliste ne bat pas ces hauteurs de ses feux ?

 

2- sait-on si ces même loyalistes récupèrent et reconditionnent les chars neutralisés pour les remettres en ligne ?

Modifié le 7 mai 2015 par Shorr kan

[Tonton Flingueur]

2- sait-on si ces même loyalistes récupèrent et reconditionnent les chars neutralisés pour les remettres en ligne ?

 

La plus part sont dans un tel état (catastrofic kill) que je doute qu'il y ait un intérêt ^^

 

 

 

Sinon apparemment, un journaliste dans un livre a paraître aurait eu des confidence de l'ami François sur des livraisons d'armes aux rebelles syrien avant la levé de l'embargo. 

http://francais.rt.com/international/2185-francois-hollande-admet-livraison-arme-syrie 

[Joab]

 

 

Inspectors find undeclared sarin, VX gas traces in Syria

Diplomats say traces found at military research site had not been declared to global chemical weapons watchdog.

International inspectors have found traces of sarin and VX nerve agent at a military research site in Syria that had not been declared to the global chemical weapons watchdog, diplomatic sources said on Friday.

Samples taken by experts from the Organisation for the Prohibition and Chemical Weapons (OPCW) in December and January tested positive for chemical precursors needed to make the toxic agents, the sources told Reuters on the condition of anonymity because the information is confidential.

"This is a pretty strong indication they have been lying about what they did with sarin," one diplomatic source said. "They have so far been unable to give a satisfactory explanation about this finding."

In 2013, the United States threatened military intervention against Syria's government after sarin gas attacks in August of that year killed hundreds of residents in Ghouta, a rebel-controlled suburb of the Syrian capital Damascus.

But the Damascus government forestalled foreign intervention by agreeing to a U.S.- and Russian-brokered deal under which it joined the OPCW, admitting to having a chemicals weapons programme and promising to eliminate it.

The government of President Bashar Assad last year handed over 1,300 tonnes of chemical arms to a joint UN-OPCW mission for destruction. But Damascus has denied using sarin or any chemical weapons in battle during Syria's continuing civil war.

The diplomatic sources said the sarin and VX nerve samples were taken from the Scientific Studies and Research Centre, a government agency where Western intelligence agencies say Syria developed biological and chemical weapons.

Asked about the diplomats' account, OPCW spokesman Peter Sawczak said: "Obviously we are working to clarify Syria's declaration. I cannot discuss any details of that process, but in due course the assessment team will issue a report."

An OPCW fact-finding mission has been investigating allegations of dozens of recent chlorine gas attacks in Syrian villages but is being refused access to the sites by the Assad government, the diplomatic sources said.

The finding of VX and sarin supports assertions by Western governments that Assad withheld some of his stockpile, or did not disclose the full extent of Syria's chemical capability or arsenal to the OPCW, according to diplomats and analysts.

OPCW inspectors have been to Syria eight times to verify the accuracy of the details of the chemical weapons programme provided in an initial report, but keep returning with more questions than answers, the diplomats said.

Under the deal with Washington and Moscow, Syria agreed to permanently and completely destroy its chemical weapons programme and cannot use poison gas in warfare.

But the OPCW, which is not mandated to assign blame, said chlorine has been used "systematically and repeatedly" as a weapon in Syria after Damascus handed over its declared toxic stockpile.

Syria has begun destroying a dozen chemical weapons production and storage sites, but also last year added several new facilities it had not initially disclosed to the OPCW.

The United States wants a team of United Nations investigators to determine who is to blame for the more recent chlorine attacks in a bid to pave the way for UN Security Council action against those responsible.

 

"We believe - and it's clear that many Council members agree - that we have got to have a means of establishing who is carrying out these chlorine attacks," Samantha Power, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, told reporters on Friday.

"We hope that we can make progress on a resolution to ensure that there is a mechanism that will not only establish chlorine use, but establish who carried out that use," she said.

Power said Washington believes the facts indicate that the Syrian government is responsible.

 

Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a British expert on biological and chemical weapons, said Syrian government forces appeared to be the only party that could have carried out the Aug. 21, 2013 sarin attacks in Ghouta because they were mounted on a large scale and professionally executed.

"This unequivocally proves there was sarin in Syria. If the OPCW possesses this evidence, it is absolutely another nail in this coffin," he said.

Source: reuters.

Des précurseurs de Sarin et de VX trouvés dans des sites non déclarés par le régime de Damas.

[Akhilleus]

Des précurseurs

 

Le problème c'est que les précurseurs ne sont pas le produit fini et qu'ils ont un usage largement dual (notamment en agrochimie)

La conclusion (bien que plausible) de l'extrait est donc un peu rapide à mon gout.

[Barristan-Selmy]

Ça commence a faire beaucoup quand même entre les installations dévoilées au compte goutte ( http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/07/syria-secret-chemical-weapons-facilities-un-says ) et la confirmation d'utilisation systématique de chlore dans le nord de la Syrie par des hélicos ( http://www.rfi.fr/moyen-orient/20150107-syrie-rapport-oiac-confirme-utilisation-armes-chimiques-bachar-assad/ ).

 

 

Deuxième attaque suicide contre l’hôpital de Jisr al-Shughur, mais toujours pas de prise du bâtiment :

Not a painting, #Jisr_Shughour hospital #Syria: https://t.co/wnWAv8Sx8j

— Mr. Green (@Mario_Greenly)

May 10, 2015

 

 

Assad a annoncé lui même que les soldats dans l’hôpital seraient rejoints.

Entre le nombre de rebelles en face, les hauteurs des deux côtés qu'ils ne contrôlent pas, la rivière au milieu et le fait que ça soit une véritable course contre la montre : on se demande ce qui pourrait mal tourner...

Modifié le 10 mai 2015 par Barristan-Selmy

[mallrats]

comment les mecs dans l'hopital peuvent encore ce battre après une telle deflagration...

[Tonton Flingueur]

comment les mecs dans l'hopital peuvent encore ce battre après une telle deflagration...

L’énergie du désespoir, dans ces moments tu penses a ce qui t'arriveras si jamais tu faiblis ... 

Modifié le 10 mai 2015 par Tonton Flingueur

[karim1218]

soldats syrien encercler dans l'hopital de jisr echougour, au dernieres news l'armee serait a environ 2km d'eux

[Shorr kan]

 

 

Je sais que ça date un peu, mais en parlant d'assiégés, que sont devenus ceux d'une certaine prison. Je me souviens encore de leur imposante pilosité faciale. Quelqu'un voit de qui et quoi je parle ?

Modifié le 10 mai 2015 par Shorr kan

[zack]

Je sais que ça date un peu, mais en parlant d'assiégés, que sont devenus ceux d'une certaine prison. Je me souviens encore de leur imposante pilosité faciale. Quelqu'un voit de qui et quoi je parle ?

Secouru par les forces du Col. Sohail Al-Hassan.

Modifié le 10 mai 2015 par zack

[2020]

 

 

 

Je sais que ça date un peu, mais en parlant d'assiégés, que sont devenus ceux d'une certaine prison. Je me souviens encore de leur imposante pilosité faciale. Quelqu'un voit de qui et quoi je parle ?

 

la prison a été libéré !

[g4lly]

la prison a été libéré !

 

Ca fait longtemps, tres longtemps!!! c'est la manoeuvre de pince qui a aboutit a la situation délicate des "rebelles". Situation dont ils sont en train de se sortir en attaquant la pince ouest.

[karim1218]

il reste encore des poches du regime les villes de nubul et zahra au nord ouest d'alep, et al fuaa, une nouvelle poche qui s'est creer apres la chute de la ville d'idlib, au nord de cette derniere, l'aerodrome de kuwereis, a l'est d'alep encercler par daech et surtout deir ezzor avec son aeroport qui est son seul cordon ombilical avec l'exterieur

[Tonton Flingueur]

L'offensive du Hezbollah dans le Qalamoun contre Al Nostra se déroule bien.

http://www.lorientlejour.com/article/924223/contre-offensive-de-larmee-syrienne-a-jisr-al-choughour.html

[nemo]

L'offensive du Hezbollah dans le Qalamoun contre Al Nostra se déroule bien.

http://www.lorientlejour.com/article/924223/contre-offensive-de-larmee-syrienne-a-jisr-al-choughour.html

Sauf que dans le Qalamoun ça n'en finis pas de finir.

[Tonton Flingueur]

Ils semblent y avoir mis les formes sur celle-ci, a voir mais c'est possible que cette fois-ci soit la bonne. 

Modifié le 11 mai 2015 par Tonton Flingueur

[Gravity]

An Eroding Syrian Army Points to Strain

 

By ANNE BARNARD, HWAIDA SAAD and ERIC SCHMITT

APRIL 28, 2015

 

BEIRUT, Lebanon — The Syrian Army has suffered a string of defeats from re-energized insurgents and is struggling to replenish its ranks as even pro-government families increasingly refuse to send sons to poorly defended units on the front lines. These developments raise newly urgent questions about the durability of President Bashar al-Assad’s rule.

 

“The trend lines for Assad are bad and getting worse,” said a senior United States official in Washington, who, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss confidential intelligence assessments, nevertheless cautioned that things had not yet reached “a boiling point.”

 

The erosion of the army is forcing the government to rely ever more heavily on Syrian and foreign militias, especially Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite group allied with Iran. Hezbollah now leads or even directs the fight in many places, angering some Syrian officers, said several Syrian soldiers, as well as the senior United States official and a Syrian with close ties to the security establishment. Most Syrians interviewed asked that their names be fully or partially withheld to avoid reprisals.

 

This month, government forces have crumbled or fled in areas long cited by officials as markers of enduring state control. Insurgents seized Idlib, a northern provincial capital, and the lone working border crossing with Jordan in the south. Counteroffensives failed, and advances this week have brought a newly cohesive insurgent coalition closer than ever to Mr. Assad’s coastal strongholds. The coalition consists mainly of Islamist groups that include Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, the Nusra Front, but oppose the Islamic State.

 

Throughout the country, there are signs of strain that contrast with Mr. Assad’s public confidence. The government recently dismissed the heads of two of its four main intelligence agencies after they quarreled; one later died, reportedly after being beaten by the other’s guards.

 

Officials in provincial capitals like Aleppo and Dara’a are making contingency plans to preserve cash and antiquities and evacuate civilians. Foreign exchange reserves, $30 billion at the start of the war, have dwindled to $1 billion.

 

The already-crowded coastal provinces are straining with new arrivals from Idlib, with some saying officials have turned them away. In central Damascus, checkpoints are fewer and more sparsely staffed, as militiamen are sent to fight on the outskirts, and young men increasingly evade army service.

 

Even in areas populated by minority sects that fear hard-line Islamist groups like Nusra and the Islamic State — such as Druse in the south, Assyrian Christians in the north, and Ismailis in Hama — numerous residents say they are sending their sons abroad to avoid the draft, or keeping them home to protect villages.

 

That has accelerated the transformation of Syria’s once-centralized armed forces into something beginning to resemble that of the insurgents: a patchwork of local and foreign fighters whose interests and priorities do not always align.

 

Four years ago, Syria’s army had 250,000 soldiers; now, because of casualties and desertions, it has 125,000 regulars, alongside 125,000 pro-government militia members, including Iranian-trained Iraqis, Pakistanis and Afghan Hazaras, according to the senior American official in Washington.

 

And Syrians are not always in charge, especially where Hezbollah, the best trained and equipped of the foreign militias, is involved.

 

“Every area where there is Hezbollah, the command is in their hands,” said the Syrian with security connections. “You do something, you have to ask their permission.”

 

That, he said, rankled senior security officials who recalled the rule of Mr. Assad’s father, Hafez, in the 1980s, when Hezbollah’s patron Iran was the junior partner in the alliance with Syria.

 

American officials are exploring how to exploit resulting tensions between Syrian and Hezbollah commanders, said the senior American official.

 

An official in the region sympathetic to Hezbollah said that enemies were trying to exploit natural tensions that “happen between allies, and between brothers and sisters in the same house,” but would not succeed.

 

“Even if Hezbollah does battle alone, it is with Syrian approval,” said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. “Hezbollah is only a stone that helps the builder.”

 

But others see a loss of Syrian sovereignty to Iran, which needs Syria as a conduit to arm Hezbollah. Charles Lister, a Syria expert at the Brookings Doha Center in Doha, Qatar, said Iran with the help of Hezbollah and other militias is building “a state within a state in Syria — an insurance policy to protect itself against any future Assad demise.”

 

Ali, 23, a soldier on leave in Damascus from the southern front, said one of his officers, a major, had complained that any Hezbollah fighter was “more important than a Syrian general.”

 

Then there is simple jealousy. Hezbollah fighters are paid in dollars, while Syrian soldiers get depreciating Syrian pounds. Hezbollah fighters get new black cars and meat with rice, Ali said, while Syrian soldiers make do with dented Russian trucks and stale bread.

 

A student who recently fled Damascus after being constantly stopped at checkpoints to prove he is not a deserter said that Hezbollah now runs his neighborhood in the old city and once helped him solve a problem between his brother and security forces. (Syrian police, he said, are so little seen that people now smoke hashish openly.)

 

“If you have Hezbollah wasta,” or connections, he said, “your problems will be solved.” The student identified himself only as Hamed Al Adem, a name he uses as a performance artist, to protect family members still in Damascus.

 

Even so, Hezbollah is not in a position to bail out Mr. Assad the way it did in 2013, when it sent hundreds of fighters to crush the insurgent hub of Qusayr, near the Lebanese border.

 

Hezbollah now has more fighters and advisers in Syria than ever, about 5,000, American intelligence officials said. But, said the Syrian with security connections, they “only interfere in areas that are in their own interests.”

 

The official sympathetic to Hezbollah said it has “maybe thousands” of fighters along the Lebanese border, hundreds in the south, bordering Israel, and only dozens around divided Aleppo, Syria’s largest city.

 

It had none in Idlib city, which he said may have fallen because some Syrian officers failed to correctly assess threats.

 

The Syrian with security ties said the leadership had not made a priority of defending Idlib. Many government troops, he said, fled after insurgents knocked out their communications network and called “God is Great” from the mosques.

 

“Damascus and the Syrian coast, other than this nothing is important. Nothing,” he said, adding of Mr. Assad: “He doesn’t give a damn if Syria is destroyed.”

 

One long-serving soldier said his cousin called from a hastily dug foxhole near Idlib to send shaky goodbyes to his mother. The soldier, who serves on another front and has lost an uncle and a cousin in battle, was enraged to hear that the 10 men pinned down there lacked even a vehicle to flee.

 

“If I have a kid, I won’t send him to the army,” he declared, complaining that his monthly pay covers just 10 days’ worth of expenses. “Why be killed or slaughtered?”

 

In Sweida, the mostly pro-government, mostly Druse southern province, “In every single house there is one man at least wanted for the army service,” said Abu Tayem, a Druse activist there.

 

Last week, he said, after a friend of his was arrested for evading the army, residents attacked security officers, captured one and traded him for the prisoner. Recently, the government tried to recruit Druse forces to be trained by Hezbollah, but few signed up after hearing they would be asked to fight Sunnis in neighboring Dara’a.

 

To enlist at this point would be foolish, not to speak of dangerous, said Majed, 19, a Druse whose father helped him evade the draft. “When the regime is gone, then our neighbors will be our enemies,” he said.

 

Fayez Korko, 48, said he helped organize an Assyrian militia in northeastern Syria after villagers concluded that the government’s promises of protection were “empty words.” He called the government “the best of the worst” — better than extremist Islamists — but said that Assyrians would rather die defending their villages than on faraway fronts.

 

Events like the fall of Idlib, said the Syrian with security ties, are frustrating even a core government constituency — minority Alawites, who belong to Mr. Assad’s sect and disproportionately serve in the military. They are beginning to doubt that the president can protect them, as they gambled in sticking with him for an existential fight, said the Syrian, who is Alawite.

 

“Syria is not you,” he said, addressing Mr. Assad, “and you are not Syria.”

 

Correction: May 2, 2015

 

Because of an editing error, an article on Wednesday about the erosion of the Syrian Army as it suffers a string of defeats and struggles to replenish its ranks misstated the reason that a Syrian with close ties to the security establishment spoke on the condition of anonymity. The Syrian, who said the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah was leading the fight in many places, angering Syrian officers, asked that his name not be used out of concern for his safety, not so he could discuss confidential intelligence assessments.

 

Anne Barnard and Hwaida Saad reported from Beirut, and Eric Schmitt from Washington. Reporting was contributed by Maher Samaan and Ben Hubbard from Beirut; Somini Sengupta from Amman, Jordan; and an employee of The New York Times from Damascus, Syria.

 

 

The New York Times

Modifié le 11 mai 2015 par Gravity

[Shorr kan]

 

 

Je trouve la situation pas très lisible, surtout dans le Nord. Je comprends que l'attrition éprouve l'armée loyaliste, mais cette dernière n'est-elle pas sur le point d'encercler Alep ? Ou cette manœuvre est bloqué, voir compromise ? Les rebelles progressent ou leurs récents succès ne change pas fondamentalement la donne ?

 

Comment interpréter les derniers développements et surtout, comment interpréter la dynamique du front ? Quelqu'un pour m'expliquer ?

[Berezech]

Bon, je viens regarder régulièrement les cartes et je m'informe un peu à droite à gauche, mais il me semble que le régime qui était plutôt à l'offensive l'automne 2014 a vu son assaut sur le nord d'Alep stagner, et maintenant commencer à même devoir laisser du terrain aux rebelles, Al Nosra et une galaxie de djihadistes variés, il y a de moins en moins de "pions" ASL sur les cartes que j'ai pu voir, celle ci devient un mouvement qui ne pèse plus que localement.

Après avoir coupé la route Idlib / Alep l'an dernier, les rebelles ont réduit un à un les points d'appuis du régime dans cette région avant de finir par prendre Idlib que le régime tient par un corridor ... corridor qui se trouve en dessous de nombreuses hauteurs tenus par les rebelles et qui tenait essentiellement par la localité ouest de Jir Shougour. Vu le terrain difficile de dire si les rebelles peuvent vraiment amener du monde pour fermer la poche, mais si ça se faisait ils détruirait sans doute les forces de la SAA dedans, sanctuariserait le gouvernorat d'Idlib et pourrait fonder le 2e Caliphat Islamique au Levant ...

Edit : regardez le terrain avec google map, ce sera sans doute plus parlant vu l'importance du relief dans le coin. La situation de la SAA est ... précaire pour dire le moins.

Le Hezbollah et une partie de la SAA se concentre sur la frontière libanaise et la montagne entre Damas et le réduit Alaouite (c'est ce qui compte stratégiquement). Mais ça fait un paquet de temps et les rebelles sont toujours là pour l'instant. Autour de Damas c'était plutôt statu quo mais l'EI a marqué des points en s'emparant d'une portion de terrain dans le coin. On en voit pas le bout même si les zones de contrôle des rebelles ne grandissent pas.

Au sud Bashar a perdu la route terrestre vers la Jordanie, et les rebelles contrôle un gros morceau de territoire. 

Dans les zones tenus par l'EI, hormis l'aéroport de Deir Ezzor, plus de présence "rebelle" ni du régime. 

Enfin au Nord est les kurdes et d'autres minorités ont formé une zone autonome, avec encore quelques postes tenus par le régime.

Perso je suis de près le combat pour le corridor au sud d'Idlib ainsi que la situation à Alep, mais pas tellement au nord (si le régime avait pu fermer les pinces ... ça n'aurait sans doute pas changé grand chose je pense, il n'y a pas assez d'effectifs pour "tenir" le terrain et rendre l'encerclement d'une ville de cette taille hermétique), plutôt le sud. Si Al Nosra sécurise assez de terrain à Idlib ils frapperont la route sud d'Alep. A noter que l'EI regarde rebelles et régime se later à Alep mais qu'elle n'est pas loin si il faut prendre des gages ...

J'ai tendance à penser que c'est au nord qu'il va se passer des trucs. Al Nosra veut créer son proto Etat. Bashar met le paquet pour continuer à respirer et tenir ce qui compte pour lui l'axe Damas / cote Alaouite.


Le site avec toutes les cartes mises à jour : 

http://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/Syrian_Military_Maps

 

Modifié le 11 mai 2015 par Berezech

[Gravity]

Bashar al-Assad's spy chief arrested over Syria coup plot

 

Ali Mamlouk, the head of the country's National Security Bureau, has been removed as the regime of Bashar al-Assad begins to show divisions over the role of Iran

 

By Ruth Sherlock, and Carol Malouf in Beirut

7:00AM BST 11 May 2015

 

The Assad regime has placed its intelligence chief under house arrest after suspecting he was plotting a coup, in a sign that battlefield losses are setting off increasing paranoia in Damascus.

 

Ali Mamlouk, the head of the country's National Security Bureau, and one of the few officials still to have access to President Bashar al-Assad, was accused of holding secret talks with countries backing rebel groups and exiled members of the Syrian regime.

 

Mr Assad is struggling to keep together the regime’s "inner circle" of the regime, who are increasingly turning on each other, sources inside the presidential palace have told The Telegraph.

 

Even before Mamlouk’s arrest, the web of intelligence agencies with which the regime has enforced its authority for four decades was in turmoil, with two other leaders killed or removed.

 

Last month, Rustum Ghazaleh, the head of the Political Security Directorate, died in hospital after he was physically attacked by men loyal to General Rafiq Shehadeh, his opposite number in military intelligence, who was in turn sacked.

 

The role being played in the war by Iran, Syria's regional ally, is said to be at the heart of the arguments, with some of the “inner circle” afraid that Iranian officials now have more power than they do.

 

Iran’s influence has been crucial in bolstering Syria’s defences against the rebels, but even that has been crumbling in the face of recent rebel advances in the north.

 

It was as Syrian troops lost control of Idlib city and Jisr al-Shughour to an alliance of Islamist rebels including Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s local branch, that Mamlouk reportedly began to make contact with hostile governments and former regime officials.

 

"Mamlouk had been communicating with Turkish intelligence through an intermediary," said a senior regime source with direct knowledge of the plan.

 

Mamlouk had also used a businessman from Aleppo as an intermediary to contact Rifaat al-Assad, Bashar’s uncle, who has lived abroad exile since he was accused of seeking to mount a coup in Syria in the 1980s.

 

Rifaat al-Assad declined to comment on the reports, but one informed source, who asked not to be named, said that " there is a big interest among the Syrian officers and military for Rifaat Assad to come back to Syria”.

 

Iranian operatives in Syria are believed to have taken command of large areas of government, from the central bank to the battle strategy.

 

"Most of the advisers at the presidential palace are now Iranian," said a source close to the palace. "Mamlouk hated that Syria was giving her sovereignty up to Iran. He thought there needed to be a change.”

 

Ghazaleh is believed to have shared this view of the Iranian influence.

 

Like Mamlouk, Ghazaleh was born to a Sunni Muslim family, and was opposed to the power being acquired in the country by Shia Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and its Lebanese proxy Hizbollah.

 

Issam al-Reis, a spokesman for the Southern Front rebel groups, who are fighting close to Ghazaleh’s home village in Deraa, said intelligence picked up from captives and others suggested Ghazaleh was fiercely hostile to Iran.

 

“He was complaining that he and his men were being treated like scum, whilst the Iranians and their militias were lords,” he said.

 

"Shehadeh arrested two of Ghazaleh's nephews from his home town because they had refused to fight under Iranian command. Ghazaleh went to the military intelligence headquarters to defend them and get them released, but there Shehadeh's men beat him."

 

Suffering from brain damage, Ghazaleh spent several weeks in hospital before the regime formally announced his death on 24th April.

 

Mr Reis’s account was corroborated by two sources inside the regime, who asked to remain anonymous.

 

The regime in Syria is of critical importance to Iran, who uses Syria as the primary route through which to arm Hizbollah.

 

With the fortunes of the two regimes so inextricably linked, Iran has bankrolled and provided the expertise and the weapons for President Assad’s war.

 

Syria’s ailing economy would likely have collapsed were it not for the credit facility provided by Tehran – more than $15 billion to date, according to Damascus’ finance minister.

 

Last month, when senior officials in Syria's regime made one of their regular visits to Tehran, the meetings were tense, and at sometimes fraught, a source close to the Iranian government told the Telegraph.

 

"Members of the regime said that they were losing control of Syria. At one point they even suggested considering cutting a deal with the opposition," the source said.

 

"The Iranians were furious, after all they had done to help. They would not lose control."

 

Charles Lister, a Syria expert with the Brookings Institution said that recent events have left the regime facing its most critical situation in years.

 

“Iran appears to be calling the shots now,” said Mr Lister. “This is partly from the fear that the regime might collapse from the inside out. Tehran is trying to create a brick wall around them.”

 

 

The Telegraph

Modifié le 11 mai 2015 par Gravity

[debonneguerre]

A deir ezzor, l'EI a utilisé un T55 en guise de VBIED.

Il y a un intéressant article d'oryxblog au sujet du siège de cet aéroport qui dure depuis plus de 3 ans.

Comme dit plus haut, c'est au nord que ca va mal pour le régime, la perte d'Idlib et ce qui se joue autour de l'hopital de jisr alshogor génère beaucoup de nervosité chez les loyalistes.

Les sponsors de la rebellion ont créé un front chaud par le flux de la frontière turque, hommes, armes, la pression est désormais de ce côté pour assad.

Plus au sud nosra se prend des tannées dans le qalamoun ou le hezbolah est à l'offensive.

 

Il y a une bataille à haute portée symbolique autour de l'hopital de jisr alshogor, si assad arrive à dégager les 250 soldats et leurs familles qui sont enfermés là-dedans, sa cote remontera dans son camp et il en a besoin en ce moment.

Modifié le 12 mai 2015 par debonneguerre